$FML's Opening Day MLB Best Bet - 3/30

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It’s not very bold but here’s my take… When Patrick Corbin pitches, I’m taking the other side! 99 times out of 100. Especially in April vs. the Braves. Here’s why:

March/April performance, last 2 seasons

• 36 innings pitched (9 starts)
• 38 earned runs (9.50 ERA)
• 74 walks + hits allowed (2.06 WHIP)

Last 2 seasons vs. Atlanta

• 30.1 innings pitched (7 starts)
• 30 earned runs (8.90 ERA)
• 57 walks + hits allowed (1.88 WHIP)

2023 pre-season projections, FanGraphs

• 4.46 ERA (bottom 35% of MLB)
• 1.70 Wins Above Replacement (tied 6th lowest of the 30 opening day starters)

Preferred Angle / Best Bet: Atlanta Braves to Win First 5 Innings x Full Game Parlay (-115)

It’s -115 at Draftkings as of Wednesday night, and I’d take this bet down to -130! It’s chalky —I know— but worth the price to me given Corbin’s past (April splits + Braves history) and the projections I referenced.

I didn’t devote much real estate to Atlanta in this column, but I’m high on them this season (regardless of the matchup vs. Corbin). The NL East was a 3-headed BEAST last year, and the Braves reigned supreme (as NL East champs). They grinded out a 101 win season that was ultimately spoiled by an early playoff exit though. Expectations going forward are high, I think they’re up for the task, and it starts now! Bonus: this is a day game.