$FML's NHL Player Prop Deep Dive: Sidney Crosby vs Montreal - 3/14

NHL legend Sidney Crosby is currently riding quite the hot streak. The right bet to make is obvious, right?

$FML would like a word.

The Penguins’ captain is officially streaking, eclipsing the 4+ shots on goal mark in 5 straight games.

We’re getting +140 odds on him to do it again in a favorable matchup (Canadiens allow 6th most shots overall; 3rd most to forwards).

The old $FML would be foaming at the mouth, ready to hammer that over. Why am I skeptical?

• Reason #1: Streaks with 4+ shots in 5 straight games are historically rare for Sidney Crosby.
• It’s only happened 1x in the last 5 seasons… and it’s right now.
• It’s only happened 6x in the last 10 seasons, and 5 of the 6 streaks happened year 2018 or earlier.
• It’s been 1,893 days (4.97 years) since he last went 6 straight games with 4+ shots.
• Reason #2: He’s averaging 7.4 attempts in his last 5 games, which ties a 6-year high.
• Last time he averaged this many attempts across 5 games? March 24, 2021.
• Next 5 games after that? Under was 5-0 (average 1.4 shots on 2.8 attempts).

• Reason #3: He’s been almost too accurate lately. In the last 3 games: 77% of Crosby’s attempts were on target.
• That 77% accuracy rate compares to 57% for the season (20% gap).
• Only 2 of his last 22 shot attempts were blocked.
• That 9% blocked shots rate compares to 22.2% for the season.
• And tonight’s opponent (Montreal) blocks the 3rd most shots in NHL.
• Reason #4: Betting Crosby to finish UNDER 3.5 shots is…
• 8-2 (80%) last 10 matchups vs. Montreal.
• 45-23 (66%) at home in the last 2 seasons.
• 0-4 (0%) in his last 4 home games… could it be due?

I leaned into this exercise hoping to find support for Crosby over 3.5 shots @ +140. Funny enough, my analysis drew the opposite conclusion. While I don’t have the cajónes needed to back the Under with hard-earned cash, I feel there’s a ton of support for it tonight. His average shot attempts are at a 6-year high; last 3-games accuracy is through the roof; and both measures are due for statistical regression at a time when he’s facing the team that blocks the 3rd most shots.

He also goes under 66% at home in the last 2 seasons but covered in 4 straight. He’s cashed in 5 straight overall, which is great, but he hasn’t achieved a 6-game streak in nearly 5 years. Perhaps my penning this article is just what the doctor ordered for him to get over the hump? That would be really funny honestly, and I won’t be surprised if it happens.

Bottom line: No bet recommendation from me either way, but I hope you enjoyed the analysis, and I’m excited to see what happens!